Craps Don't Pass Odds Bet
Craps Basics: Pass/Don't Pass Bets
- Craps Don't Pass Odds Bet Win
- Craps Don't Pass Odds Bet Horse Racing
- Craps Don't Pass Odds Bet Sportsbook
The long, curving section along the edge of the table closest to where the players stand is called the Pass Line.
Why most craps players don’t bet the Don’t Most players bet the Pass Line and the Come, and they avoid the Don’t Pass and Don’tCome, even though the Don’t side offers slightly better odds. The Don’t Pass Odds bet against the point is based on true odds, or the odds that a 7 will appear compared to a point number. Let’s review the data our other article about basic craps math. Remember, for a Don’t Pass bet after a point is established, the bet wins if a 7 is rolled before the point, and loses if the point is rolled before a 7. The don't pass line bet used with maximum don't pass odds bet is the absolute best bet you can make in craps or anywhere else in the casino! This has slightly better odds than even the regular pass line bet used with pass odds, so it gives you the best mathematical odds possible.
'Pass Line' Bets
The most basic craps bet is the Pass Line bet. When you place a Pass Line bet, you're betting with the dice. In other words, you're betting that the either a 7 or an 11 will be the first number rolled (called the 'come out' roll). If this happens, you double your money right away. If a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 is rolled, this establishes a 'point.' When a point is set, you want that number to be rolled again, before a 7 is rolled (when the shooter 'sevens out'). If the shooter rolls the point before he rolls a 7, you double your money.
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If the number rolled on the come out roll is a 2, 3, or 12 (called Craps), you lose. If, after a point is established, a 7 is rolled before the point number is rolled again, you also lose.
'Don't Pass' Bets
Placing a Pass Line bet is betting with the dice, and placing a Don't Pass bet is betting against the dice. Pass Line bets are also said to be 'betting right,' while Don't Pass bets are said to be 'betting wrong.' (Not that either is any better or worse a bet than the other -- this is just craps jargon.) Don't Pass bets are just the opposite of Pass Line bets. Rather than hoping for a 7 or an 11 on the come out roll, you're hoping for a 2, 3, or 12 (the losing roll of Pass Line bets). A 2, 3, or 12 will double your money on a come out roll if you've placed a Don't Pass bet. When a point is established, rather than hoping that the point number will be rolled again before the 7 shows up, you're hoping that the point won't be rolled again before the 7 shows up -- if the 7 comes first, you win.
'What is your opinion of betting equal amounts on the pass and don't pass lines in craps and taking full odds on the pass line? Wouldn't the pass and don't pass cancel each other out and leave only the odds, allowing me to gamble with no house edge?'
And the wizards answer is:
'No, this is not a good idea. The pass and don't pass do not cancel each other out. If you roll a 12 the pass will lose and the don't pass will push, for a net loss. To illustrate the increase in the house edge in this strategy lets assume the casino allows 5X odds. The house advantage by betting the pass line and full odds would be (7/495)/(1+5*2/3) = 0.326% . The house advantage by betting both the pass and don't pass lines and full double odds would be (7/495+27/1925)/(2+5*2/3) =0.528% . You can see the house advantage is about 62% greater by betting both the pass and don't pass lines. By adding the don't pass bet into the equation you are mixing into the formula another bet with a house advantage which brings down your overall expected return.'
My Question:
I guess I understand the math of this but not the logic. The pass bet offers two ways to win immediately, 7 or 11, and THREE ways to lose immediately, 2, 3, or 12. However the Don't Pass bet offers two ways to win immediately and ONLY TWO ways to lose yet the payout is the same. Also, if I go to the wizards Craps Appendix 2, the house edge for a pass line bet is 1.41% whereas for a Don't bet it is only 1.36%. Logically, then, the two bets combined should have a lower house edge than just the pass line bet => the average house edge would go DOWN, not UP. Since the house has no edge on the free odds bet I'm confused? Can anyone clue me into what I'm missing here?
Thanks
Stickman
PS: Also, it seems to me that by placing the Pass and the Don't Pass bets in place until a point is established, you would be reducing the overall volatility of your bankroll
the PL has EIGHT ways to win immediately and FOUR ways to lose immediately.
the DP has EIGHT ways to lose immediately and THREE ways to win immediately and ONE way to push immediately.
Yes, you do lower the volatility. In fact, if you don't put odds down, your variance will be extremely low -- you can't win.
The house edge for a doey-dont is actually the average of the two: 1/72 = 1.38889% because you lose 1 unit every 72 units bet. Some people consider this a one unit bet however because even though you have 2 units in play, only one of them will be resolved so they place the HA at 1/36 = 2.777%. When you place odds the HA does go down but by less because you have more units in play and you lose the benefit of the come out roll.
It's not a very smart bet, but it is certainly not the worst. Betting both ways is no worse than playing the field, and still not as bad as a proposition bet.
People do the same thing with a $1 bet on craps on the come out roll which pays 7:1. In a similar manner they think they are reducing their risk, because they figure that if they lose the pass line bet because the dice end up craps, at least they will win the craps bet. But it doesn't really cover you because you lose the craps bet on the 7's and 11's and all the point rolls. The house average is 11.11% if it pays 7:1 and half that if it pays 7.5:1. So it may be only a dollar bet, but the expectation is relatively low.
To get the house average of two independent bets, you simply add the house averages of the individual bets.
I proposed using this strategy and betting the PL odds for points of 6&8 and the DP odds for points other than 6 or 8, under the assumption that you'd have consistent wins. Of course the trade-off is that you are only getting small wins, while risking large bets on the DP odds.
This statement makes sense:
If you were two different people one would be playing at house advantage of 1.41% and the other would be playing at house advantage of 1.36%. So the expectation is that the two of you would lose 1.41%+1.36% of your combined money.
And, look at that:1.41 + 1.36 = 2.77 = 1/36
Go figure!
Sure, there are things like card counting that give the player an advantage. But that's a skillful way to play, not a combo of bets.
In the meantime remember three things:
1) Casinos are out to make money
2) Casinos and game makers employ people like The Wizard (sometimes they employ him specifically), to analyze their games mathematically.
3) In light of points 1 and 2, if there were a way to neutralize or reverse the HA, the casinos would get rid of it.
The rules for the various games are neither capricious nor random. They are designed to meet the casino's needs (there are exceptions, and sometimes even fascinating ones).
And, look at that: 1.41 + 1.36 = 2.77 = 1/36
Go figure!
More precisely using the fractional form you get 7/495 + 3/220 = 1/36
Basically that is telling you that if you didn't put any 'free odds' every bet would result in a an even expected value except a 12 on the come out roll. In this case the don't pass pushes, and the pass loses. This roll happens on average once out of 36 rolls.
The 'free odds' bet has no house edge.
But 1/36 > 7/495 and 1/36 > 3/220 , so you are increasing your house edge by making both bets. But you are certainly going to reduce your variance.
Like I said, it's not a smart bet, but there are much worse things you can do. A house edge of 1/36 is the normal house edge on a field bet with double 2, and triple 12.
I guess I understand the math of this but not the logic.
I guess I understand neither. I will try to study this thread though and see if I can understand the math. I don't know if the casinos will actually let you bet both Right and Wrong though.